Wine industry leaders and stakeholders convened in Stellenbosch, in the Western Cape, this week to assess the future of South African wine, with speakers taking stock of the economic headwinds, climate realities and global trends that affect the production and consumption of South African wine daily.

Nedbank chief economist Nicky Weimar surveyed the positive trends in South Africa’s energy, rail and port infrastructure sectors, noting that structural and policy reforms had lowered the country’s risk premium, while sound fiscal discipline had led to a welcome sovereign risk rating upgrade.

“National Treasury believes fiscal policy will turn a corner this year, with the peak in the debt burden behind us, but this momentum hasn’t quite translated into enough positive growth yet,” she said.

Despite South Africa’s economic recovery, bolstered by strong consumer spending and a resilient rand, Weimar warned that an interest rate hike seemed unavoidable – a prediction realised when the South African Reserve Bank raised the repo rate by 25 basis points on Thursday, May 28.

She expressed that an increasingly volatile world cast a long shadow over global trade, affecting international competition, seaborne trade and oil supplies, leaving South Africa vulnerable to supply shocks and high inflation.

“Disposable income is the biggest driver of consumer spending, but when diesel prices rise, and inflation goes up, they can drive down consumer spending even up to two years later.”

Additionally, South Africa Wine CEO Rico Basson provided an overview of the wine industry’s development, drawing lessons from past successes. Amid increased competition from other categories, consumers were drinking less wine and seeking value, he said.

“The industry is not shrinking, it is restructuring around value. Heritage and innovation are not opposites. They are mutually reinforcing.”

On a positive note, Basson revealed that net farm revenue per hectare improved significantly in 2025.

Unfortunately, he noted that a combination of waning consumption and oversupply erodes value. Globally, growth will come from a more diversified, value-led, tailored strategy across international markets.

Basson stressed the importance of aligning with regulation by building on low-alcohol and wine-based innovations, committing to environmental, social and governance standards as a condition of market access, investing in people as the foundation of a globally competitive industry and moving from a reactive to an intelligent data ecosystem to drive decision-making, competitiveness and resilience.

His overarching conviction is that South Africa’s 367-year winemaking heritage provides a solid foundation for innovation and reinvention.

“We need to attract the next generation. This is possible by doing what we do well, cleaning up our act and coordinating our approach.”

Meanwhile, political analyst Dr Mpumelelo Kansas Mkhabela turned the spotlight on the political and regulatory forces influencing the South African wine sector.

He noted that declining trust in elections, public institutions, political parties, leadership and the Government of National Unity created an uncertain policy environment for the industry.

He explained that diplomacy-backed trade deals and agreements had been very effective at unlocking growth and expanding market access and warned against taking them for granted.

“They have to be actively maintained. The rivalry between China and the US is going to influence how products are perceived in different markets. African countries may benefit by positioning themselves strategically.”